{ "$comment": "The source registry. Every factual entity in data/ww3 and every citation marker in content/ww3 resolves to an id here, and tools/ww3/validate.mjs fails the build on an id that does not. source_type follows the hierarchy in the publication's inclusion rules: treaty > dataset > official > research > institution > wire. accessed_at is the date the claim drawn from this source was last read against it.", "methodology_version": "sources-1.0", "sources": [ { "id": "aca-inf", "title": "The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty at a Glance", "publisher": "Arms Control Association", "url": "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-inf-treaty-glance", "published_at": "2019", "accessed_at": "2026-09-14", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "Entry into force, obligations, and the United States withdrawal effective 2 August 2019." }, { "id": "aca-jcpoa", "title": "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) at a Glance", "publisher": "Arms Control Association", "url": "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/joint-comprehensive-plan-action-jcpoa-glance", "published_at": "2025", "accessed_at": "2026-09-14", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "The agreement, the inspection arrangements attached to it, and the United States withdrawal of 8 May 2018." }, { "id": "aca-new-start-expires", "title": "New START Expires As U.S. Urges 'Modernized' Treaty", "publisher": "Arms Control Association, Arms Control Today", "url": "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-03/news/new-start-expires-us-urges-modernized-treaty", "published_at": "2026-03", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "Records both the expiry on 5 February 2026 and the unanswered Russian offer to observe the central limits for a further year without verification." }, { "id": "aca-npt-balance", "title": "The NPT System Hangs in the Balance", "publisher": "Arms Control Association, Arms Control Today", "url": "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-04/focus/npt-system-hangs-balance", "published_at": "2026-04", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "On the absence of active arms-control negotiations among the five NPT nuclear-weapon states and the state of Article VI obligations." }, { "id": "aca-open-skies", "title": "The Open Skies Treaty at a Glance", "publisher": "Arms Control Association", "url": "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/openskies", "published_at": "2021", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "The observation-flight regime and the two withdrawals that ended it: the United States effective 22 November 2020, Russia effective 18 December 2021." }, { "id": "aca-pk-deterrence", "title": "Pakistan Extends Nuclear Deterrence to Saudi Arabia", "publisher": "Arms Control Association, Arms Control Today", "url": "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-10/news-briefs/pakistan-extends-nuclear-deterrence-saudi-arabia", "published_at": "2025-10", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "Records both the Pakistani defence minister's statement on nuclear coverage and its subsequent retraction. The publication treats the nuclear scope as unresolved." }, { "id": "aei-china-taiwan-jul-2026", "title": "China & Taiwan Update, July 2, 2026", "publisher": "American Enterprise Institute", "url": "https://www.aei.org/commentary/china-taiwan-update-july-2-2026/", "published_at": "2026-07-02", "accessed_at": "2026-09-14", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "Running chronology of Taiwan Strait military and political activity." }, { "id": "aj-bab-el-mandeb", "title": "Red Sea nations watch as Houthis seize Bab al-Mandeb strait", "publisher": "Al Jazeera", "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/13/red-sea-nations-watch-as-houthis-seize-bab-al-mandeb-strait", "published_at": "2026-09-13", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "wire", "notes": "Current operational layer, same-day reporting. Treated as provisional: the publication's inclusion rules hold a single wire report at 'partial evidence' until a second independent source confirms it." }, { "id": "aj-hormuz-traffic", "title": "How a 95 percent drop in Hormuz traffic changed global shipping", "publisher": "Al Jazeera", "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/27/how-a-95-percent-drop-in-hormuz-traffic-changed-global-shipping", "published_at": "2026-08-27", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "wire", "notes": "Current operational layer. Gulf crude exports down from roughly 17 million bpd before the war to roughly 9 million bpd in August 2026." }, { "id": "aj-indus-hague", "title": "Pakistan wins Indus waters battle at The Hague, but India threat remains", "publisher": "Al Jazeera", "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/1/pakistan-wins-indus-waters-battle-at-the-hague-but-india-threat-remains", "published_at": "2026-09-01", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "wire", "notes": "The Permanent Court of Arbitration held that the Indus Waters Treaty remains fully in force and that India may not suspend it unilaterally. India rejected the finding." }, { "id": "aj-kyiv-talks-sep-2026", "title": "US envoys arrive in Kyiv for Ukraine war talks after meeting Putin", "publisher": "Al Jazeera", "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/5/russias-putin-meets-us-envoys-to-discuss-trump-proposal-to-end-ukraine-war", "published_at": "2026-09-05", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "wire", "notes": "The September 2026 round: a short halt in strikes on the capitals during the visits, agreement to resume trilateral talks, no ceasefire." }, { "id": "aj-sa-pk", "title": "Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan", "publisher": "Al Jazeera", "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/17/saudi-arabia-signs-mutual-defence-pact-with-nuclear-armed-pakistan", "published_at": "2025-09-17", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "wire", "notes": "Same-day report of the signature and of the official formulation that aggression against one is aggression against both." }, { "id": "az-joint-declaration-2025", "title": "Joint Declaration signed on meeting between the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia held in Washington", "publisher": "Office of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan", "url": "https://president.az/en/articles/view/69572", "published_at": "2025-08-08", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "official", "notes": "Primary record of the 8 August 2025 Washington declaration. A statement by one party to the process; read alongside the Armenian record and the Crisis Group briefing." }, { "id": "bulletin-sa-pk", "title": "The Saudi-Pakistani 'strategic mutual defense' pact that no one saw coming", "publisher": "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists", "url": "https://thebulletin.org/2025/10/the-saudi-pakistani-strategic-mutual-defense-pact-that-no-one-saw-coming/", "published_at": "2025-10", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "research", "notes": "Analytical treatment of the agreement's scope and of the consequences of its text remaining unpublished." }, { "id": "cfr-chokepoints", "title": "Conflict-Driven Chokepoint Disruptions", "publisher": "Council on Foreign Relations", "url": "https://www.cfr.org/reports/conflict-driven-chokepoint-disruptions", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "Comparative treatment of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb and the Taiwan Strait as conflict-exposed chokepoints." }, { "id": "cfr-nagorno-karabakh", "title": "Global Conflict Tracker: Tensions Between Armenia and Azerbaijan", "publisher": "Council on Foreign Relations", "url": "https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "Chronology of the conflict, including 2020 and 2023." }, { "id": "cfr-us-china-timeline", "title": "Timeline: U.S.-China Relations", "publisher": "Council on Foreign Relations", "url": "https://www.cfr.org/articles/us-china-relations", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-14", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "Used for the suspension of military-to-military channels in August 2022 and their restoration in November 2023." }, { "id": "crs-hormuz", "title": "The Strait of Hormuz: Security Developments and Impacts on Oil, Gas, and Other Commodities", "publisher": "Congressional Research Service", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45281", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "official", "notes": "Baseline volumes through the strait and the mechanism by which a disruption reaches commodity markets." }, { "id": "crs-israel-iran", "title": "Israel-Iran Conflict, U.S. Strikes, and Ceasefire", "publisher": "Congressional Research Service", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF13032", "published_at": "2025", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "official", "notes": "The June 2025 sequence: Israeli strikes from 13 June, US strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 22 June, ceasefire announced 24 June." }, { "id": "ec-repowereu", "title": "REPowerEU", "publisher": "European Commission", "url": "https://commission.europa.eu/topics/energy/repowereu_en", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-14", "source_type": "official", "notes": "The European programme to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels, and the reporting on how far it has gone. Used for the claim that one coercion channel was deliberately reduced, at cost." }, { "id": "evn-unfinished-peace", "title": "The Unfinished Peace Deal: Armenia–Azerbaijan Agreement Initialed Yet Unsigned", "publisher": "EVN Report", "url": "https://evnreport.com/politics/the-unfinished-peace-deal-armenia-azerbaijan-agreement-initialed-yet-unsigned/", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "The Armenian-side account of why the initialed text has not been signed." }, { "id": "fas-after-new-start", "title": "The Aftermath: The Expiration of New START and What It Means For Us All", "publisher": "Federation of American Scientists", "url": "https://fas.org/publication/the-expiration-of-new-start/", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "Used for the verification-regime consequence: the loss of on-site inspections and data exchanges, separately from the loss of numerical limits." }, { "id": "iaea-verification", "title": "IAEA Safeguards and Verification", "publisher": "International Atomic Energy Agency", "url": "https://www.iaea.org/topics/safeguards-and-verification", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "official", "notes": "What safeguards inspection consists of, and therefore what is lost when access is withdrawn." }, { "id": "ican-sa-pk", "title": "Pakistan – Saudi Arabia: A mutual defence pact with nuclear shadows", "publisher": "International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN)", "url": "https://www.icanw.org/pakistan_saudi_arabia_a_mutual_defence_pact_with_nuclear_shadows", "published_at": "2025", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "An advocacy organisation with a stated disarmament position. Used for the description of the agreement's nuclear ambiguity, not for evaluation of it." }, { "id": "icg-armenia-azerbaijan", "title": "Armenia and Azerbaijan: The Hard Road to a Lasting Peace", "publisher": "International Crisis Group", "url": "https://www.crisisgroup.org/brf/europe-central-asia/caucasus/armenian-azerbaijani-conflict/98-armenia-and-azerbaijan-hard-road-lasting-peace", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "On what remains unresolved: the unsigned text, the constitutional precondition, demarcation, and the absence of a ratified instrument." }, { "id": "iea-oil-market-report", "title": "Oil Market Report — September 2026", "publisher": "International Energy Agency", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026", "published_at": "2026-09-11", "accessed_at": "2026-09-14", "source_type": "official", "notes": "The IEA monthly balance current at the as-of date, published 11 September 2026. Used for the characterisation of the 2026 Gulf disruption’s scale relative to previous supply shocks." }, { "id": "isas-post-pahalgam", "title": "India–Pakistan after Pahalgam: strategic responses and regional implications", "publisher": "Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore", "url": "https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/qutoe_from_experts/episode-288-india-pakistan-after-pahalgam-strategic-responses-and-regional-implications/", "published_at": "2025", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "research", "notes": "The May 2025 exchange and the decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, in one analytical frame." }, { "id": "iwt-1960", "title": "The Indus Waters Treaty 1960", "publisher": "World Bank / Government of India / Government of Pakistan", "url": "https://treaties.un.org/pages/showDetails.aspx?objid=0800000280132b62", "published_at": "1960-09-19", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "treaty", "notes": "The instrument itself, including its dispute-resolution ladder: Permanent Indus Commission, Neutral Expert, Court of Arbitration." }, { "id": "jiia-test-moratorium", "title": "Preserving the Nuclear Test Moratorium at the NPT Review Conference", "publisher": "The Japan Institute of International Affairs", "url": "https://www.jiia.or.jp/eng/report/2026/05/strategic_comment_2026-14.html", "published_at": "2026-05", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "research", "notes": "On the strain placed on the de facto testing moratorium during the 2026 Review Conference." }, { "id": "lloyds-red-sea-brief", "title": "Red Sea Brief: 6 August 2026", "publisher": "Lloyd's List Intelligence", "url": "https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/resources/blog/red-sea-brief-6-august-2026", "published_at": "2026-08-06", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "Transit counts through the Red Sea's northern chokepoint and the rerouting behaviour of tanker operators." }, { "id": "nato-treaty", "title": "The North Atlantic Treaty", "publisher": "North Atlantic Treaty Organization", "url": "https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/1949/04/04/the-north-atlantic-treaty", "published_at": "1949-04-04", "accessed_at": "2026-09-14", "source_type": "treaty", "notes": "Article 5 in its actual wording: each party shall take 'such action as it deems necessary'. The treaty does not oblige any member to go to war." }, { "id": "new-start-text", "title": "Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START)", "publisher": "United States Department of State", "url": "https://2009-2017.state.gov/t/avc/newstart/index.htm", "published_at": "2010-04-08", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "treaty", "notes": "The central limits and, separately, the inspection and data-exchange regime that lapsed with it." }, { "id": "npt", "title": "Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons", "publisher": "United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs", "url": "https://disarmament.unoda.org/en/our-work/weapons-mass-destruction/nuclear-weapons/treaty-non-proliferation-nuclear-weapons", "published_at": "1968-07-01", "accessed_at": "2026-09-14", "source_type": "treaty", "notes": "Article VI on negotiations in good faith towards disarmament." }, { "id": "prio-conflict-trends-2025", "title": "Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2025", "publisher": "Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)", "url": "https://www.prio.org/publications/14802", "published_at": "2026-06", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "dataset", "notes": "PRIO's annual reading of the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset. The closed annual layer this publication counts conflicts with. Counts are for calendar 2025." }, { "id": "rand-caucasus-prospects", "title": "What Prospects for Lasting Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?", "publisher": "RAND Corporation", "url": "https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2026/01/what-prospects-for-lasting-peace-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan.html", "published_at": "2026-01", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "research", "notes": "Assessment of durability and of the domestic political timetable the agreement depends on." }, { "id": "roc-semiconductor-chain", "title": "Taiwan and the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain", "publisher": "Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan)", "url": "https://www.roc-taiwan.org/uploads/sites/86/2023/08/20230824-TAIWAN-AND-THE-GLOBAL-SEMICONDUCTOR-SUPPLY-CHAIN.pdf", "published_at": "2023-08-24", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "official", "notes": "Used for Taiwan's share of advanced logic fabrication. An official publication of an interested party; the concentration figure is corroborated by industry reporting but is held at 'strongly supported', not 'confirmed'." }, { "id": "sipri-milex-2025", "title": "Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025", "publisher": "Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)", "url": "https://www.sipri.org/publications/2026/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2025", "published_at": "2026-04-27", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "dataset", "notes": "Fact sheet for calendar 2025. Figures are constant-price real terms; the global total is given in current US dollars." }, { "id": "tsm-strait-snapshot", "title": "Strait Snapshot, March 2026 Update", "publisher": "Taiwan Security Monitor, Schar School, George Mason University", "url": "https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-march-2026-update/", "published_at": "2026-03", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "research", "notes": "Counted PLA aerial sorties and China Coast Guard incursions. The source of the observation that a fall in air activity did not come with a fall in naval presence." }, { "id": "tsmc-6k-2q26", "title": "Form 6-K, second quarter 2026 results presentation", "publisher": "Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000451/a2q26presentatione.htm", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-14", "source_type": "official", "notes": "A filed financial disclosure. Used for capacity and revenue composition, not for market-share claims, which the filing does not make." }, { "id": "ucdp-charges", "title": "UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia", "publisher": "Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala University", "url": "https://ucdp.uu.se/", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "dataset", "notes": "Per-conflict records behind the annual counts." }, { "id": "ucdp-definitions", "title": "UCDP Definitions", "publisher": "Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala University", "url": "https://www.uu.se/en/department/peace-and-conflict-research/research/ucdp/ucdp-definitions", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-14", "source_type": "dataset", "notes": "The formal definitions this publication borrows: state-based conflict, incompatibility, battle-related deaths, and the 25-death and 1000-death thresholds separating conflict from war." }, { "id": "ucdp-downloads", "title": "UCDP Dataset Download Center", "publisher": "Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala University", "url": "https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "dataset", "notes": "The underlying dataset and its codebook. Defines 'state-based armed conflict' as a contested incompatibility involving a government as one party and at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year." }, { "id": "ucdp-jpr-2025", "title": "Organized violence 1989–2025, and violent political protests", "publisher": "Journal of Peace Research", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/jpr/article/63/4/705/8703754", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "research", "notes": "The peer-reviewed annual article accompanying the UCDP data release." }, { "id": "un-bsgi", "title": "Black Sea Grain Initiative", "publisher": "United Nations", "url": "https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative", "published_at": "2023", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "official", "notes": "The initiative agreed 22 July 2022 and the end of Russian participation on 17 July 2023. A confidence-building mechanism with a measurable output, which is rare." }, { "id": "un-charter", "title": "Charter of the United Nations", "publisher": "United Nations", "url": "https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text", "published_at": "1945-06-26", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "treaty", "notes": "Article 27(3) on Security Council voting, Article 51 on self-defence, Chapter VII on enforcement." }, { "id": "un-news-new-start", "title": "UN chief warns of 'grave moment' as final US-Russia nuclear arms treaty expires", "publisher": "United Nations News", "url": "https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/02/1166892", "published_at": "2026-02", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "official", "notes": "Official UN record of the expiry date." }, { "id": "vcdnp-end-of-new-start", "title": "End of New START: Short- and Medium-Term Options", "publisher": "Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation", "url": "https://vcdnp.org/end-of-new-start/", "published_at": "2026", "accessed_at": "2026-09-13", "source_type": "institution", "notes": "What can and cannot substitute for a lapsed verification regime." } ] }